The mobile OS war is getting more interesting and the
current market share battle is between iOS and Android will go on for a while. Will there be a breakout of it
will be more like a Pepsi vs. Coca Cola market share battle that has been lasting for
decades? Android is getting better momentum the last two years and I expect
that to continue. I think the overall market share is stabilizing and the
other two Windows and Blackberry will remain niche players. Newcomers will join
the game and there are three in the US and they are Mozilla, Tizen and
Canonical. There are a few emerging ones in Asia and they all worth keeping a
close watch, especially those up and coming companies in China.
In China
Android accounts for 86% of all new smartphones sales and there are three
times as many Android users than the US. The business model is basically
freemium, developers hoping to make money from in-app purchase. The Android ecosystem is growing like crazy as people find iPhone is
getting a little boring and may be too restricted.
There will be surprises that in the next 12 months perhaps cool smart phones from China that came from nowhere selling for half the price and have even better
performance. There was a private
lab test done on the top 10 most popular smartphone in China a few months back and the result was 5 of the 10 most popular Android devices from local Chinese manufacturers perform better than the imports.
They include the Lenovo A750 and
the XIAOMI MI 1S.
Apple is watching
the market closely and also struggling whether to add a stylus for the next
iPhone, it will be a tough one as they
have always been strongly against it and the Samsung Galazy stylus is nicely designed. There are no
definite right or wrong in this business and the behavior changes so quickly.
Expect some big design shift for the next iteration of
Android that leverages more of the Hybrid Card layout. Android needs to jump into the next
game in terms of user experience and it demands a shift in overall visual language from
current Jelly Bean paradigms to something really different. The jump from
Gingerbread to Ice Cream Sandwich was a big jump. I believe Android will
be looking at gestures control beyond the screen, perhaps the back and even the
side. Apple already has a patent filed 2006 relating to using gestures on its
back and a recent Google patent might bring that concept to next generation of
Android phones. The principle is as easy as touching the back casing of the
Android device in order to interact with the gadget and that can drastically
improve the user experience. Imagine back tapping to change page or call list
etc. It will be powerful when combined with acoustic feedback. The battle of mobile interfaces design has barely begun. And Facebook is joining the party.
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