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Competitive Strategy

March 02, 2008

Developing An Effective Channel Strategy In the World Of Channel Proliferations

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Dell is seriously thinking about expanding their stores and giving up their strategic competitive advantage of direct e-commerce only distribution. There were so many debates on how the role of intermediaries has changed due to the Internet and social networks. Today many companies still have not resolved these issues while spending millions on world class solutions such as ATG.  I came across this note which was a speech I gave to a b-school marketing club some two years ago. I was talking about channel strategy and I thought I should share with you here:

Any company out there with a product/service to sell, how to make that product available to their targeted customers can be as crucial a strategic issue as developing the product and the brand itself, while distribution strategy seems to be a very traditional concern, companies has come under intense scrutiny due to a number of major developments including the Internet and Warehouse Clubs. The expanding market power of retailers has forced many to rethink their channel approaches.

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First, let’s talk about the expanding role of the Internet, expanding social connectivity that will result in the coming of “social commerce”. In consumer and business procurement activity has created unprecedented opportunities for easy and vast access to customers and the experience has moved beyond transaction to experiential, the other thing is the economics of materials delivery has been revolutionized by super efficient logistical networks deployed by third-party logistics powerhouses. As a result, many manufacturers are reconsidering whether they should rely on intermediaries or should what extend they should rely on them.  Today’s topic of my speech is to give some insight into this issue.

Firms in a variety of industries have recently established avenues for selling direct (e.g., Nike, Banana Republic, Target, Mattel, Kodak, IBM, Sony, Levis, etc.), and still many others are still seriously evaluating such strategies. In general, this decision entails a determination of the number of levels in the distribution network, the number of outlets within each level, and other variables, such as pricing, inventory levels, and service levels, customer expectations and shopping behavior etc. Today I want to talk about the strategy and the management activities.

The basic motivations for this include: (1) resellers carry only limited assortments of a manufacturer’s products, (2) direct control of distribution and pricing can lead to higher profit margins, (3) resellers can use their power to extract various concessions from the manufacturers, (4) manufacturers can provide a broader product selection in a better ambiance with higher service in direct outlets, (5) more flexibility in experimenting with product attributes such as personalization, (6) closer contact with customers with direct feedback mechanism, and (7) protection from crises faced by resellers 

Getting rid of intermediaries can also improve supply chain efficiency, by allowing upstream parties better visibility into market demand. While these arguments have long supported the use of direct sales and company-owned concept stores, they are just as relevant when the markets are created via the Internet. Indeed, the explosion in possibility of e-commerce and the coming of “social commerce” is what has drawn many manufacturers into the realm of direct sales.  It is not only about moving products, but engaging with customers. Elimination of intermediaries is not without disadvantage, though.

The role of intermediaries is to efficiently create and satisfy demand, through activities that include customer education, providing market coverage, providing breadth of assortment, processing orders, customer support, etc. We refer to these collectively as “sales effort.” If a manufacturer cannot otherwise provide these functions efficiently, elimination of intermediaries may cause an erosion of profits, market share, or both. Many instances this establishes the manufacturer as a direct competitor to its reseller partner, potentially leading to tension referred to as “channel conflict.” We hear this all the time and there seems to be a lot of confusion of what is required to deal with this issue. There's a well-publicized story involved letters in May of 1999 by Home Depot to more than 1,000 of its suppliers, stating “Dear Vendor, It is important for you to be aware of Home Depot’s current position on its’ [sic] vendors competing with the company via e-commerce direct to consumer distribution. We think it is short-sighted for vendors to ignore the added value that our retail stores contribute to the sales of their products....We recognize that a vendor has the right to sell through whatever distribution channels it desires. However, we too have the right to be selective in regard to the vendors we select and we trust that you can understand that a company may be hesitant to do business with its competitors” In general, channel conflict can undermine attempts to develop cooperative relations in the intermediated channel, which may lower the profits of ALL parties. The desire to use both channel types may compel a manufacturer to redefine its relationship with the intermediary, with careful attention to the division of labor and any associated financial terms. For instance, in 1998, the former Compaq unveiled an aggressive effort to sell personal computers directly to end customers, bypassing the dealers who helped make it one of the world’s largest sellers of PCs. To appease its dealers and distributors, Compaq’s plan included maintaining separate brands for small business and corporate markets and paying dealers an estimated 5-6% commission for referring small business customers. On the other hand, while IBM may take orders for PCs over the Web, it redirects the sales to its distributors and allows some of them to add further value by performing a variety of assembly steps. Although they later on dropped these practices and decided even to close down retail outlets and go fully e-channel.

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Most of the times adding a new distribution channel often create channel conflict, whether the new channel is owned by the manufacturer or involves other intermediaries. The use of the term focuses specifically on resellers’ concerns about the installation of a manufacturer-direct channel since this represents a growing trend in industry. There is no end in sight for this trend. So how do you formulate a channel strategy? You start from an assessment of channel power and levels of cooperation. Manufacturers must evaluate the following factors when determining the right level of cooperation or when assessing their channel power:

1/ Brand Equity: A strong brand (Apple) drives customers to a manufacturer's site while a weak brand (Acer) points customers to a retailer;
2/Margins: Higher margins (Nike or Adidas) let a manufacturer more easily absorb direct e-commerce costs not already part of its core expertise;
3/ Level of Customer Involvement: The larger and less frequent a purchase, the more effort and consideration a customer exerts during the buying process, and where the brand community exists; 4/ Retailer Value-Added: The more a retailer contributes to the customer experience, the higher the value-add (e.g., large product assortment, service wrapper);
5/ Internet Value-Added: The more the Internet enhances the shopping experience, the higher the value-add of selling directly (e.g. relevant content and customization);
6/ Competitive Intensity: The level of competition within both the retail and manufacturing segments will also be a factor in channel strategy since it is a key determinant of market power (e.g., the more retailers there are then the stronger the manufacturer's position);

A number of factors, including e-commerce and the transformation of logistical economics driven by the growth of the third-party logistics industry, have led many companies to consider engaging in direct e-com sales. This may put such companies in competition with their existing reseller partners. The potential channel conflict has huge implications for distribution strategy. Here I have proposed a concept model that captures key attributes of the relationship between a manufacturer / brand owner and a reseller who act independently, including various sources of inefficiency. These include double marginalization within the re-seller channel, and the failure of each channel to fully perceive the positive externality that its sales efforts can have on the other channel. The latter is directly related to the issue of channel conflict.  I believe that the addition of a direct e-channel alongside a reseller channel is not necessarily detrimental to the reseller. In fact, the manufacturer will reduce the wholesale price to retain some of the reseller’s selling effort, and in some cases, this can make both parties better off.

Using an industrial economic point-of-view, there actually can be a net system-wide efficiency gain to share because the whole-sale price reduction can counteract double marginalization. With such a multi-channel arrangement, diverting product flow to the direct channel can create efficiency gains if this serves demand at lower overall supply chain cost. Hence, the reseller’s concern may, in reality, be groundless; There are also ways to meet customer service expectations and can dramatically enhance the overall shopping experience and even extend that to the resellers.

There are simply many ways to create win-win situation. Yes channel conflicts can be avoided even in the age of channel proliferations. The answer is a harmonized and flexible channel strategy. On this note I want to say thank you and I will spend the next 20 minutes taking questions.

February 10, 2008

Tiffany - Extending The Brand Magic To New Categories?

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We did a little shopping this weekend my wife and I stumbled upon a few good finds including a pair of Burberry snow boots and a pair of elegantly designed Tiffany sunglasses (with Swarovski crystals on the sides). This may be a category that they are planning to enter into.  I don't recall they have a large sunglasses collection. Companies such as Tiffany that cater to the affluent always face the same dilemma: how to balance growth with exclusivity. If you expand too far down the luxury ladder, you cheapen the brand and lose cachet. If you stay exclusive, your market base will always be limited. The question is not whether you should or not, it is how. Companies like Tiffany need to deliver growth but not at the expense of the brand.

There is so much talking about recession and one would think that luxury goods will be the first to be negatively impacted. Tiffany just gave an upbeat forecast for 08 despite everyone worries about the consumer sentiments. Tiffany CEO Michael Kowalski expects a 10% rise in total sales and mid-single-digit profit gain, pretty good taken into account the macro conditions. Tiffany touted growth will primarily be from China and Japan business will continue to falter. This is unarguably one of the best managed brands in the world and the blue box is almost magical to consumers. I am a fan of Tiffany. This little blue box company has grown in to a $2.2 billion 150+ stores company.  Even with a slowdown in front of us, I think they will still do fine. We can always expect a shakeout in the industry from the this slowdown and it will widen the gap between strong and weak brands. The key is to renew their focus on what they're really good at and innovate within or next to those categories. Many luxury brands have entered into categories where they have no expertise because they fell into the trap of "lifestyle" brands.

Up-market consumers are highly discerning and sophisticated. They are always willing to pay a reasonable price premium for, brands that are specialists in certain categories. Tiffany in jewelries, Hermes in handbags, Louis vuitton in leather goods and luggage, Christian Louboutin in women's shoes, and Berluti in men's shoes are brands that up-market consumers rate highest as category leaders. Part of the strategic exercise is to cnduct a rigorous assessment of your brand's category portfolio and get rid of the non-strategic extensions. This is when the brand makes a difference. The challenge for Tiffany is to find growth that doesn’t require new real estate investments but retaining the brand’s exclusivity and prestige image. That's why they did this deal with Swiss watch giants Swatch. I think the idea is to design and produce an extensive collection of watches under the Tiffany brand. and to be distributed beyond Tiffany's boutiques.  They do carry a small watch collection and mostly are on the high end. Is this a smart move (if so what is the strategy behind it) or a deprecate attempt to create new revenue stream at the expense of diluting the Tiffany brand? I think this is a smart strategy and will be a key part of Tiffany’s growth strategy.

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The Tiffany brand will help Swatch market to women as well as more upscale market. The watch industry is still a man’s world. Women’s watch market makes up 35%-40% of the luxury watch market. There’s no reason why it cannot be at 55-65%. There is tremendous market potential to turn that into fashion watches like handbags. Tiffany hopes this deal will make them a strong competitor to Cartier and Bulgari , two jewelers that have successfully moved into the luxury watch business. Louis Vuitton and Hermes are also key players too. Hermes watches are good value for brand, design and price. Tiffany will launch in the second half of 08, with the first full collection to follow in 09.

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I think the company will continue to move slightly (I really mean slightly) down market  and will continue to look at other high margin categories for extension and leverage their brand. What’s next? Sunglasses and leather goods? How about a Tiffany cell phone? I think it is a matter of time. Expect them to boost lower-priced goods like key rings, pens, stationary and porcelain should also lift profits because margins are attractive for those items. They need to learn from the mistake they made in Japan and not opening too many stores back home. The key is to explore the digital channel and also focus on the, business-to-business and catalog purchases (currently only 9% of total revenue). There are so much untapped opportunities that Tiffany can explore in the online space. This is also an area of vulnerability when we think how Generation Y goes shopping for engagement rings? Are they still going to pay a premium for the blue box from Tiffany, or are we going to Blue Nile? But for now, we all love the blue box.

February 07, 2008

Who Would Microsoft Send To Run Yahoo!

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I was talking to my investment banker buddies about the Microsoft deal. If Microhoo proceeds as planned, what would happen to Yahoo?  Would they want to keep the company seperate or bring it closer? What platform will be used across the two? I have no doubt that Redmond will send in the generals as soon as the deal is closed and Jerry may or may not have a non-executive role.  I think there’s a 80% chance that he will leave in less than 6 months. They don’t see him as a corporate person and there’s big culture differences. So who would Ballmer send in?

They probably won’t bring in someone from outside, in my opinion is the three top candidates would be Kevin Johnson, president of platforms and services; Brian McAndrews, SVP, advertiser and publisher solutions group and Steve Berkowitz, SVP, online services group. Not in any particular order. I think Merkowitz stands a hslightly igher chance.  I am hearing stories that some of them are actively lobbying for the job.

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Berkowitz seems like a strong candidate. He is currently responsible for the marketing, sales and business development of Microsoft's online services, including MSN.com and Windows Live. Prior to Microsoft, Berkowitz was chief executive of Ask.com and has been credited for its turnaround.

A few weeks back there's stories that McAndrews circulated a note to shareholders, touting his success in integrating aQuantive into Microsoft and outlining plans for search, video and mobile adv at Microsoft. He is selling his vision of how integration should happen between the two companies. McAndrews currently reports directly to Kevin Johnson.

i guess we will see more lobbying in weeks ahead.  Hey I want to run Yahoo too.

February 06, 2008

Where's The White Knight That's Going To Save Yahoo!

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It is sad to see that Yahoo is not even putting up a fight. There was no competing bid so no reason for Microsoft’s offer to put more money on the table. Usually we can expect another 10-20% premium.  So far we have seen any signs of a white knight. I thinkYahoo will try to get the offer closer to $40. Not sure they will be succesfull. At the end of the day, the price may end up at $36-$37 I think.

While they can go to Google and partner (outsource) with them on search advertising and boost cash flow. A move like this will trigger the regulatory people to question and delay this deal. Such a search-advertising agreement would likely encounter serious objections from an anti-competition perspective. For 07, Google had a 71% share of U.S. search-adv revenue, and Yahoo was second with 8.9%, according to eMarketer. For U.S. online adv overall, Google garnered 28% of revenue, and Yahoo was second with a 15.4% share in 07; Time Warner's AOL had 6.6%, and Microsoft's MSN had 6.5%. In December, Google handled 56.3% of U.S. search queries, while Yahoo handled 17.7% and Microsoft handled 13.8% according to the Nielsen Online. If Yahoo's board makes the wrong move, it may be getting a flurry of shareholder lawsuits for a breach of fiduciary duty. So tread carefully.

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It is not a secret but less talk about that Yahoo’s display inventory is estimated between 12X to 15X of Google’s. They bought some interesting companies buying RightMedia, MyBlogLog, Flickr etc. over the years but unfortunately hey just don’t how to monetize them. Or Yahoo could increase its cash flow by an estimated 10-25, swallow their pride and let Google runs its search advertising business. And that kind of a deal could give them a good reason to keep Microsoft out.  Outsourcing search to Google is not bad move (aol) from a strategy perspective, but it is a huge blow to Yahoo’s pride, They might as well do that and acknowledge that all those money and time invested into Yahoo’s Panama project to revamp their search advertising platform simply failed. I think Yahoo’s fate cannot be changed. Here’s email Jerry sent to his folks at Yahoo on the Microsoft offer (source:  documents filed to the SEC on Monday, Feb. 4)

-CONFIDENTIAL-

fellow yahoos:

since we talked to you this morning, there's been a lot of media coverage and industry chatter about microsoft's unsolicited proposal to acquire yahoo!. we know you've been hearing and reading a lot about this. that's why we wanted to reach out to all of you at the end of the day to emphasize a few things that we hope will give you some more context about this proposal, the process that our board is taking, and what you can expect in the days ahead.

first, we want to emphasize that absolutely no decisions have been made — and, despite what some people have tried to suggest, there's certainly no integration process underway. this proposal is just that — a proposal. and it was only made in the last 24 hours. you can be sure the board is going to review it thoughtfully and carefully, and do what's right for our great company. microsoft's proposal is one of many options that we're evaluating in order to maximize value for our shareholders and employees over the long-term. that's why we will respond to microsoft after our board has completed a careful review of all of our strategic alternatives.

second, we can't let any of the noise we're hearing around this situation distract us from our core mission. it's critical that we continue to focus on running our business, executing our strategy and delivering value to all of our users, advertisers and publishers.

finally, we realize that this may have been a tough day for many of you, especially those on the front lines of our business. we know you have many questions, and we're committed to making sure you're as informed as possible as this process moves forward. in the interim, we both want to thank you for your continued energy, focus and determination. we'll continue to share information with you as we have it and can do so.

jerry and roy bostock (our new non-executive chairman)

October 17, 2007

So What's Your Open Platform Strategy? Do You Really Understand The "Widgetnomics"?

Four months after Facebook unveiled its platform initiative, now everyone is talking about a platform strategy. Everyone in the technology ing space dream about creating the next web 2.0 platform. Virtually every major tech (software, mobile, hardware, broadcast, payment) company has a platform strategy, not to mention an equally elaborate set of plans to do whatever possible to stop any competitors from achieving platform status or anywhere near there.  Over lunch yesterday, one of my business partners was quick to point to the need of an open platform strategy for Apple's iPhone. That’s a little too simplistic if we consider the business strategy of Apple and the complexity of putting literally hundreds of small technological innovation into one big one. They simply cannot afford to open the floodgate to deal with all kinds of unpredictable technical issues due to many proprietary designs (hardware included) as well as the speed they bring these products to the market. There are many factors that make platform-based design a sine qua non . Design has become far too complex to allow engineers to start from scratch development and verification at reasonable effort every time. While time-to-market targets have reduced drastically to an unrlealistic level – development from scratch is very difficult challenge.  Apple performed a mission impossible job. And just reusing your own or third party IP modules is not enough, reuse as a methodology itself has to be optimized as well.  In many cases, it is no longer sufficient to focus on one specific bus protocol because of different applications require very often different bus protocols, for example by a given choice of an embedded CPU or a specific touch-sensistive screen. But it is an inevitable move for Apple, Jobs will announce the plan for third-party iPhone applications on Wednesday. Next Feb, iPhone developers will finally be able to obtain a software development kit that will give them the tools and the know-how to create safe and reliable applications for the iPhone without having to depend on "jailbreaks" programs. That means iPhone users will be able to add applications without voiding their warranties. It has taken a while and the reason being Apple wanted to find a way to be as "open" as possible to third-party development while still keeping a lid on viruses and malware as well as managing potential risks that could kill the iPhone before it becomes the iPod.

Platform strategy is always an interesting one which most people understand half of it only. Any platform innovation takes on very different properties depending on which of the following three strategies you have in mind:

1/Improve Cycle Time Productivity -This is the most basic domain of platform innovation—develop your own product line with a product architecture that people can build and extend upon.  Over a longer term, almost every company needs to undertake some form of architecture rationalization effort to migrate toward a common platform. The goal is to improve their productivity and reduce cycle time and time to market. So this is platform strategy 101.

2/Strategic Business Eco-system Building - This is a bigger idea, brining in innovation from partners and suppliers, the goal is to build out an ecosystem of partners who will add their efforts to yours to develop solutions that jointly compliment and reinforce each others’ strategic positioning. The typical mistake of these efforts is recruiting a large number of strategic partners, which is almost never a good idea. Rather the focus should be on a smaller group of intimate partnerships, making sure you actually bring together the best of breed companies that share a common industry vision or more effecitvely a share enemy.

3/Owning a De Facto Standard - This is the ultimate thing, in which your technology becomes a critical enabler of a whole class of applications or verticals or categories.  Microsoft, Google, eBay and iPod did that. There are many others too, GSM vs CDMA, PS2 vs Nintendo and XBox, ATG vs BEA, etc. Becoming the De Facto is like winning the lottery and you almost need to have this in your b-plan if you are pitching VCs for big dollars. Being a monopoly also has its price. You will become the incumbent and the core target of all these basement start-ups, those young smart guys in India or France is working day and night to put you our of business. You will end up being the Defender. Again, it is not a bad problem to have because you must be filthy rich by then.

Last few weeks, social networks Tagged, Hi5 and LinkedIn have made it clear they're working on application program interfaces (APIs) for developer platforms much like Facebook's. I’ve heard rumors that Facebook's chief rival MySpace.com is also working on something similar as well. Third-party developers are all scratching their heads just by thinking about the ideas of creating applications for a ten platforms. That will never happen. Customers' lock-in is always very tempting idea, doesn’t happen often and if it does, it doesn’t last long enough.

If you are successful, you want to push the open-innovation button and open your APIs. If you are failing, you might as well do that too. The idea of wooing developers to one social-networking platform makes Google, which has for several years been integrating with third-party developers on other properties such as Google Maps, an intriguing possibility in this fight for attention / big wins. There are rumors saying that the company is seriously considering opening the codefor Orkut, its social network, which is getting anywhere. Google might leverage some of its existing properties, like Gmail or new acquisitions like Jaiku, into a more coherent "social utility". Just by virtue of being a Google company, it gives you a ticket to enter the game.

Let me tell you why I am not keen in this idea. Facebook has stated that there are no confidentiality protections for developers who submit business plans to the company in the hopes of earning venture cash for their applications. Theoretically, this means Facebook could see a developer plan it likes and create something similar in-house. The other thing many developers have no idea of the platform economics, I have doing that for ages and I can just run the numbers from the back of a napkin and tell you whether it is a good idea of not in 5 minuets (That’s why I can't charge by the minute). If you decide to do that, make sure that the widget must be “monetizable” and try to create or maintain a “barriers to entry” for other. I called it "Wigetnomics".OK, just coined another  web 2.0 term.

Anyway, really need to go back to my day job. Will continute our branding discussion next week and talk about some joint outputs. Received many suggestions from many of you,with thanks.

June 20, 2007

Yahoo! Mayday Mayday Mayday

Yahoo It has been more than 8 months since Brad Garlinghouse, a Yahoo senior vice president, wrote an internal note to senior staff about his vision on the current company’s (lack of ?) strategy, Yahoo finally took the step to replace CEO Terry Semel with "Chief Yahoo" Jerry Yang. The question is what’s next? What’s the game plan? Employee morale is at its lowest, and a few key management positions remain unfilled including the CTO job. There hasn’t been any innovation coming from Yahoo for a long time. A few months ago Yahoo opened what it calls "Brickhouse," a unit devoted to developing innovative new products, but so far there's been only one release--Yahoo Pipes, an interactive feed aggregator.

Yahoo has been acting like an “old media” company for the last 36 months. With 12,000 employees and so many different products and business units, Yahoo has become a large, complex corporation that is slow responding to competitive threats, such as Google on search and search advertising. They missed out totally on the whole social media space and are way behind the curve in their video sharing properties (they did a pretty poor job at that too). They failed to integrate their services or create a centralized place for people to hang out. Yahoo's 360 social network has not been widely adopted, although there is ‘some’ good stuff there.

More importantly, Yahoo! has failed to articulate a clear strategy about how the company will compete with Google and be the dominant player for years to come. Better monetizing search is NOT a company strategy, it's only a tactic. Improving a lead in graphical ads is NOT a strategy, it's a tactic. Doing a few more acquisitions is NOT a strategy, it’s a tactic. As a career strategist for 25 years I can tell that they don’t have one. That’s a very serious problem. This fleet of 757s is flying without navigational support or any sense of destiny.

This is like the first life crisis of a teenager and the next two years will be important turning points in Yahoo! history.

What it is telling us is: If Yahoo has trouble competing against Google as a media company then what hopes do traditional media companies have? I want to write about the next media crisis.

June 15, 2007

Is iPhone a killer strategy for AT&T or for Apple?

IphoneSo far surveys show that AT&T stands a pretty good chance of stealing customers away with the rights to sell the highly desirable iPhone. Two-thirds of mobile-phone users who are interested in purchasing the iPhone aren't AT&T customers but willing to switch carriers to get this, according to a survey in May of about 11,000 cellphone users by M:Metrics Inc., a research firm that tracks wireless industry trends.

Now who is seeing trouble? The carrier with the most to lose is T-Mobile, according to the survey, with 12.5% of its customers expressing a high interest in the phone; followed by 8.1% for Sprint Nextel.; and 6.7% for Verizon. T-Mobile is seen as especially vulnerable because it has a high share of users in the 18-to-24 age group, and many of them are core targets of iMac and iPod.

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The market is big and attractive. About 19 million people in the U.S., or roughly 9% of cellphone users, are highly interested in purchasing the iPhone, even they know it will cost them $499 or $599 to get one and need to be an AT&T customer. The current defined price points are definitely a barrier for many and a hurdle for Apple if they want to move 10M units, but Apple has some flexibility to lower the price once they scale up production. The 10M goal is in 2008, and by the end of that year, I assume there will be new devices being introduced (may be iPhone Junior or Nano, say at a $249 level) and price points for the two original models may eventually be lowered to $399 and $499. Some analysts are saying that by 2009 Apple will be shipping 45,000,000 iPhones. 45 Million!! That's 10 Billion dollars of revenue. Just making a quick calculation of share price. That's a test of faith.

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Don't expect the competition to just sit there and watch. Samsung and LG, among others, are very aggressive and will launched dozen models of touchscreen phones. Sure they won't have the cool design and the features of the iPhone, but they will compete with other new features and aggressive price points which will force Apple to lower prices. Not a bad thing for us. So the question is will iPhone become a game-changing success story that can sustain its premium price and volume demand or it will become another Newton. Speaking of Newtons I still have mine sitting on my desk and I now use it as a paper weight.

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